Is this finally the Browns franchise quarterback?
It’s officially the second week of August, also known as the week every football fan has circled on their calendar. Welcome back to football season. Last night, preseason officially kicked off, and the New York Jets lost again. Let’s not talk about that right now though. Let’s talk about fantasy football, projections, love/hate lists, and fantasy drafts. In this article, I’m going to compare and break down some stars, busts, and sleepers for the 2019 NFL season, comparing The Daily Fantasy Aces projections for 2019 with those players results from 2018. These projections are for PPR leagues, with 6 points for a touchdown (QB included).
RISERS:
1) Leonard Fournette, JAX, RB (+100 points)
2) Christian Kirk, ARI, WR (+71 points)
3) Kerryon Johnson, DET, RB (+60 points)
4) Kenyon Drake, MIA, RB (+55 points)
5) Baker Mayfield, CLE, QB (+47 points)
6) Derrick Henry, TEN, RB (+42 points)
7) Evan Engram, NYG, TE (+40 points)
8) Duke Johnson, HOU, RB (+36 points)
9) David Johnson, ARI, RB (+29 points)
10) Allen Robinson, CHI, WR (+27 points)
There are some others I’ve ignored on the list such as KC’s Damien Williams, doubling his points from last year (+99 points), which is actually a regression over a full season considering he only played a couple games after Hunt’s suspension. There’s also receivers like Will Fuller, Cooper Kupp, and Jamison Crowder returning from injury, so if they can stay healthy, of course they will ascend back to WR2 status, but, those are obvious, so not worth mentioning.
#1) Leonard Fournette
2018: 120 points
2019: 221 points (RB #14)
I just mentioned how obvious regression to the mean is not worth mentioning, but, this is a different situation. Fournette was hurt last year, but he also had other off the field problems which hampered his trust within the organization and I’m sure affected his mental awareness and therefor buried him in a sophomore slump. Here at TDFA, we believe those problems are behind the former LSU Tiger, and with a new quarterback taking snaps for the Jaguars, there will be less turnovers and more opportunity for Fournette. He helped many teams in 2017 as he totaled 1,300 yards and 10 TDs his rookie year, we have him projected for 1,200 yards from scrimmage and 9 total TDs in Year 3.
2) Christian Kirk
2018: 123
2019: 201 (WR #22)
So many things went wrong for Christian Kirk his rookie year it was hard to keep track. I drafted him as a sleeper last year and just as things were heating up for him he broke his foot and missed the rest of the season. Josh Rosen was not the franchise quarterback the Cardinals thought he would be, so they drafted Kyler Murray whom Kirk is very familiar with after their heated rivalry between Texas A&M and Oklahoma in college. Murray has a better arm and is more mobile than Rosen, and Kirk is wildly athletic able to catch and run. Look for this connection to bring good things to everyone who drafts Kirk on draft night.
3) Kerryon Johnson
2018: 140
2019: 201 (RB #18)
I know some projection systems have Kerryon Johnson even higher than this, but, I am comfortable slotting in him as a RB2, after an injury plagued rookie season. The Lions just released Theo Riddick, and traded Golden Tate at the deadline last year, putting their cards all in the pot for Kerryon Johnson to take over as the teams premier fantasy player. The key to Kerryon Johnson is the fact that new Lions OC Darrell Bevel loves to run the football. Bevel has coached Adrian Peterson and Marshawn Lynch when those running backs were either the best or one of the best backs in the league. Look for Johnson to make that leap eventually, but not this year. As long as he can stay on the field, we have Kerryon Johnson projected to average 4.9 yards per carry, and breaking 1,200 yards from scrimmage and over 200 fantasy points!
4) Kenyon Drake
2018: 207
2019: 263 (RB #8)
Buckle up, and get familiar with Kenyon Drake. This is your warning before someone else in your league drafts him without you realizing what happened. Make sure he is on your team in 2019. He only started 7 games last year and still finished with 9 touchdowns and 1,000 yards from scrimmage. We see Drake as a true breakout star, ranking #18 overall in skill position players, and the 8th best running back in 2019. The Dolphins start their season at home against the Ravens and Patriots, two teams who can’t stop the run on the road, before traveling to Dallas, and coming back home against the Chargers and Redskins. There isn’t much opposition there, and ripe for abuse from a player who has been targeted over 100 times (73 receptions), combined for 1,600 yards from scrimmage, with 12 total touchdowns over his last 22 games started. A lot of people are going to say “But he didn’t 75 yards rushing in a single game last year”, and that fact is why he’s on this list. Be ready to be amazed.
5) Baker Mayfield
2018: 296
2019: 343 (QB#15)
I originally was not going to include any quarterbacks in this list or discussion, but the Cleveland Browns have me very intrigued. Baker Mayfield came into the league as the #1 overall pick and tore my heart out as a Jets fan last year in one of the most exciting rallies I can remember as a football fan. The nickname “Touchdown Maker” became even more truthful when the team went out and traded for Odell Beckham Jr, and signed Kareem Hunt. Even though they just traded away Duke Johnson, they won’t affect Mayfield in the least. He now has three stud receivers, an up and coming young TE in David Njoku, and Nick Chubb to keep defenses honest. Now, because QB in fantasy football is so deep, Baker won’t put up the numbers of an Aaron Rodgers, Matt Ryan, or Drew Brees, but if you’re looking for a consistent quarterback who WILL win you games each week, take a deep dive at Mayfield in the second hour of your draft and use the saved dollars (because everyone does auction drafts now, right?) on a better player earlier. Over his last eight games of his rookie season, Mayfield totaled 19 touchdowns, and that was without Odell Beckham Jr.
FALLERS:
** Patrick Mahomes, KC, QB (-85 points)**
1) Antonio Brown, OAK, WR (-43 points)
2) James White, NE, RB (-40 points)
3) Todd Gurley, LAR, RB (-39 points)
4) Tyreek Hill, KC, WR (-37 points)
5) Golden Tate, NYG, WR (-36 points)
6) Adam Thielen, MIN, WR (-32 points)
7) Eli Manning, NYG, QB (- 30 points)
8) George Kittle, SF, TE (-27 points)
9) Joe Mixon, CIN, RB (-25 points)
10) James Conner, PIT, RB (-23 points)
** Patrick Mahomes
2018: 519
2019: 434 (QB #1)
There’s a reason I put an asterisk next to his name. Because even though our projection system has Mahomes losing 5 fantasy points per game, he is still ranked as our #1 overall quarterback and #1 overall fantasy player in 2019. Not much to discuss here, but wanted to notate that!
1) Antonio Brown
2018: 324
2019: 280 (WR #8)
Is there a more obvious “faller” in 2019 than Antonio Brown? I don’t think so. This might be the only pick on this list which isn’t a victim of regression but instead being an idiot. My fantasy league friends will tell you that for a long time I used to yell (and then reverse jinx him) that Le’Veon Bell was overrated. I can’t do that anymore, so now I will tell everyone that Antonio Brown is overrated. He forced his way out of Pittsburgh, and Mike Wallace can tell you, the grass isn’t always greener. The Steelers traded him to the dumpster fire that is the Oakland/San Diego/Las Vegas Raiders franchise. Brown is now expected to miss all of the preseason, and valuable reps with Derek Carr, due to self inflicted frost bite on his feet. Again, he’s #1 on this list for a reason. I can’t wait to see the next dumb thing he says or does is. Ask Dez Bryant how being a diva went for him.
2) James White
2018: 276
2019: 230 (RB #13)
I know a few Patriots fans will comment and act like this is an awful prediction, you know who you are, but, keep in mind that the Patriots have committed to a run game to give Brady more years under center. The teams philosophy is to protect Brady as much as possible, and that means going back to clock killing and clock management philosophies. James White excels as a premier scatback, but, he does not succeed between the tackles. His fantasy value comes from dump and run screen passes, but the Patriots will be fading away from that this year because one of their best blockers, Gronkowski, has retired. Ask yourself, how many awe inspiring blocks did Gronk have that made you cringe which broke a hole for White? That won’t happen in 2019. James White is still a viable RB2, but don’t expect a repeat of the last several years.
3) Todd Gurley
2018: 373
2019: 334 (RB #4)
Much like Patrick Mahomes, Gurley loses a chunk of points, but it isn’t crippling to his total projection. It’s almost a guarantee Gurley will miss at least one game during the season due to his knees, perhaps Week 16 or 17, or earlier than that. Every running back who reigns supreme eventually falls from the top spot, Gurley’s stay on top was just a bit shorter than others. The Rams seem content on protecting their franchise running back as much as possible to keep him healthy for the playoffs, and they can afford to because of how good Jared Goff is and the weapons the team has around him. Don’t be scared away from Gurley, just be mindful of the injury concerns, as that is the reason he falls from the #1 spot.
4) Tyreek Hill
2018: 328
2019: 291 (WR #6)
Last month this could have been an entirely different topic, but, Tyreek Hill was not suspended or blacklisted from the league, and he comes into the 2019 season ready to remind people what made him a household name last year. Don’t forget, he was a 5th round draft pick in 2016. The Chiefs did draft Mecole Hardman this year, but that was to protect themselves in the event Hill was suspended and cut. With the same regression as Mahomes, Hill takes a big chunk of that of that pie against his numbers. They had a lot of big pass connections last year fall out of the sky, perhaps a few of those don’t connect this year. Like most names on this list, it doesn’t stop Hill from being a top 10 option.
5) Golden Tate & Eli Manning
Oh the New York Giants. At least the Jets aren’t the worst professional sports team in New York anymore. What a trash pit. I love it. Golden Tate gets suspended for steroids the day after Sterling Shepard breaks his thumb and Corey Coleman tore his ACL. The Giants also traded away Odell Beckham Jr. Is there a worse starting quarterback in the NFL than Eli? (Okay Joe Flacco still exists, damnit). Is there a worse starting quarterback in the NFL that has won at least two Super Bowls in his career? Nope. Eli Manning has become the living breathing ghost of Rex Grossman. Forcing passes into tight coverage, and looking incompetent. If only Rex Ryan was the coach of the Giants. The Giants fired Ben McAdoo in 2017 for benching Eli Manning. Eighteen months later the Giants drafted Daniel Jones in the first round of the draft. Anyone want to bet McAdoo loves the taste of crow? Neither of these guys belong on your fantasy team. Stay away!
That wraps up this article. I hope you enjoyed it. Look for more content as the 2019 NFL season continues on each and every week from The Daily Fantasy Aces!
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